2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, KL2 said:

I think a lot of people are misreading this tweet...though I'm not sure if its intented this way. Everybody is making it seem like chris said no to *any* deal. 

But the info reads an offer of just shy so 295 million was made. Chris is the one who nixed a deal that would have paid more so like a 325 million deal. If so I don't see the huge problem here. Everyone has a budget, chris said no to the bigger deal but they still made a roughly 300 million offer. 

So speaking of Chris Ilitch, Henning suggested recently that the Tigers would be on the block once Marian dies. Does someone know the logic to that?  The Tigers are in a Trust, Chris is the Trustee, Marian is not legally a party as far as I can see. Sure, Chris might for whatever reason sell the team, but I don't see the connection to Marian being here, or gone. I guess it depends on the rules of the trust but if Mike made Chris the supervising Trustee my understanding would be that the other siblings couldn't force a sale even if they wanted to - but I could be wrong there.

Edited March 12, 2022 by gehringer_2

[IdahoBert]

Forget Correa. I wouldn’t authorize a 10-year deal for Jesus. Yes his first three seasons were spectacular, but he got to the show at 30 and he’s 33 years old. His inordinately high BABIP is clearly unsustainable. He hangs out with a pretty rough crowd too. I think he’s a public relations problem waiting to happen. I vote no. 

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Really?  

Who is your 5? 

I think you need at least 8 starters going into the season.    He could be a bullpen/depth guy even if he is not in the Opening Day rotation.    I do expect a couple of our young guys to have injuries at some point.  Even with a full Spring Training I would expect that.   I like Tyler Alexander in the same role they've used him the last two years.    

1. Mize

2. Rodriguez

3. Skubal

4. Manning

Other than that, the options seem to be  Tyler Alexander, Rony Garcia, Reese Olson, Joey Wentz.

That's a lot of uncertainty. 

They still need 2 guys.  One of them could be Peralta.  

Sold. Sign him up.

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

Forget Correa. I wouldn’t authorize a 10-year deal for Jesus. Yes his first three seasons were spectacular, but he got to the show at 30 and he’s 33 years old. His inordinately high BABIP is clearly unsustainable. He hangs out with a pretty rough crowd too. I think he’s a public relations problem waiting to happen. I vote no. 

If you designed the contract so it pays him a ton in 24, 25 and 26

How about this

1 -Age 27 2022  27,000,000     
2 -Age 28 2023  30,000,000
3 -Age 29 2024  35,000,000 - Miggy's contract off the books now and the young players won't be FA yet.  
4 -Age 30 2025  40,000,000
5 - Age 31 2026  40,000,000
6 - Age 32 2027  38,000,000  - You'll have to start paying any younger pitchers that worked out
7 - Age 33 2028  34,000,000 -
8 - Age 34 2029  32,000,000 -  Guys like Tork & Greene will start getting paid (if they work out)
9 - Age 35 2030  30,000,000 -
10  Age 36 2031  27,000,000

 

10 years,  333 million.    It swells when Miggy's contract disappears

 

GET IT DONE

 

 

 

[Motor City Sonics]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

So speaking of Chris Ilitch, Henning suggested recently that the Tigers would be on the block once Marian dies. Does someone know the logic to that?  The Tigers are in a Trust, Chris is the Trustee, Marian is not legally a party as far as I can see. Sure, Chris might for whatever reason sell the team, but I don't see the connection to Marian being here, or gone. I guess it depends on the rules of the trust but if Mike made Chris the supervising Trustee my understanding would be that the other siblings couldn't force a sale even if they wanted to - but I could be wrong there.

Probably because of the emotional attachment related to her husband.  

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Probably because of the emotional attachment related to her husband.  

IDK, at least from outward appearances Chris seems pretty happy to be a baseball owner and pretty involved with the team. If he's only doing this as a chore for his mother he hides it well.

[Jim Cowan]

No way for 10 years at 320 plus for Correa, he isn't worth it.  There was only one stupid contract from a stupid team out there, and Seager took it.  Good for Al Avila for wanting him (and apparently Chris Ilitch approving it) at 300, I wouldn't, but that's the assessment that he made.  And good for Chris Ilitch for saying that there is a limit beyond which he would not go for Correa.

[casimir]

14 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I'm fine with them not getting Rodon... that is too much money 

Grienke is polarizing bc of his velocity loss,  but I'd still consider him for a #5 slot. May command too much money tho

Manning is the 5th SP.  Let's not assume he is more than that until he shows otherwise.

Greinke is interesting because of his ability to pitch as opposed to "just throwing".  There is a minimal amount of MPH that a P is going to need to get through a MLB outing.  Whether or not he still has the minimal amount and can sustain it through the season, I don't know.  And I don't want to compare their careers because Greinke has had a much better career than Kenny Rogers.  But this kind of seems like it could be a similar kind of free agent move for the Tigers if the velocity isn't an issue.

[casimir]

9 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

If you designed the contract so it pays him a ton in 24, 25 and 26

How about this

1 -Age 27 2022  27,000,000     
2 -Age 28 2023  30,000,000
3 -Age 29 2024  35,000,000 - Miggy's contract off the books now and the young players won't be FA yet.  
4 -Age 30 2025  40,000,000
5 - Age 31 2026  40,000,000
6 - Age 32 2027  38,000,000  - You'll have to start paying any younger pitchers that worked out
7 - Age 33 2028  34,000,000 -
8 - Age 34 2029  32,000,000 -  Guys like Tork & Greene will start getting paid (if they work out)
9 - Age 35 2030  30,000,000 -
10  Age 36 2031  27,000,000

 

10 years,  333 million.    It swells when Miggy's contract disappears

 

GET IT DONE

 

 

 

And that could become the problem.  If they have Mize, Skubal, Manning, Torkelson, and Greene hitting their primes, they're going to want to keep what they can and they'll have a declining value contract in Correa on the books (if he's still healthy, let's not forget that part of his resume).

It's wise to construct a contract that way, a bell shaped curve that offers some financial protection.  But if a contract has a base value that high, even bell curving it makes it awfully risky.

Edited March 12, 2022 by casimir

[Tigeraholic1]

When is it not to soon for our first spring training game thread? 🤔

[RatkoVarda]

11 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

10 years,  333 million.    It swells when Miggy's contract disappears

if they have $33M more to spend each year (I think they do), better ways to spend that:

OF (Schwarber or Conforto) + Reliever (Chafin or McHugh) + Starter (Grienke or Anderson) = about $33M, for less years and less risk

[Motor City Sonics]

35 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

if they have $33M more to spend each year (I think they do), better ways to spend that:

OF (Schwarber or Conforto) + Reliever (Chafin or McHugh) + Starter (Grienke or Anderson) = about $33M, for less years and less risk

Why are we so worried about risk all of a sudden?    It ain't our money.     Remember when the Tigers were really good 10 years ago..............there was a lot of risk on that payroll.    Kenny Rogers was a risk because of his age.   Magglio was a risk because of injury history.  Miguel was a risk because he's an alcoholic.    Come on, man.    Take the shot.     

[Dan Gilmore]

I like the idea of adding several mid tier FAs to address weaknesses instead of one stud. And the length of contracts would be a major reason for that.

With the season suddenly back does that mean the Tigers may be able to sign some of those mid tier guys more easily than in a normal, spread out FA period? By that I mean the players may feel they need to grab an offer without hanging back and seeing if a better one might come in a week or two. Conversely, the team will need to be in with reasonable offers before the same thing happens in reverse.

[casimir]

23 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I like the idea of adding several mid tier FAs to address weaknesses instead of one stud. And the length of contracts would be a major reason for that.

With the season suddenly back does that mean the Tigers may be able to sign some of those mid tier guys more easily than in a normal, spread out FA period? By that I mean the players may feel they need to grab an offer without hanging back and seeing if a better one might come in a week or two. Conversely, the team will need to be in with reasonable offers before the same thing happens in reverse.

I would think players want a known home address for this season pretty quickly.  Although let's be honest, there's probably been some backchannel conversations during the lockout.  If there haven't, if everybody stuck to the rules, there was probably plenty of chatter ahead of that,

[casimir]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

if they have $33M more to spend each year (I think they do), better ways to spend that:

OF (Schwarber or Conforto) + Reliever (Chafin or McHugh) + Starter (Grienke or Anderson) = about $33M, for less years and less risk

We can debate the actual pieces, but I like your overall theory of allocating for several players.

[Cruzer1]

McHugh makes a lot of sense for the Tigers right now.

[casimir]

34 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Why are we so worried about risk all of a sudden?    It ain't our money.     Remember when the Tigers were really good 10 years ago..............there was a lot of risk on that payroll.    Kenny Rogers was a risk because of his age.   Magglio was a risk because of injury history.  Miguel was a risk because he's an alcoholic.    Come on, man.    Take the shot.     

That risk lead the Tigers to the crap Cabrera years, the crap MartinezV years, the crap Zimmermann years, ....

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

When is it not to soon for our first spring training game thread? 🤔

It snowed yesterday.  The first spring training game thread cannot come quickly enough.

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, casimir said:

That risk lead the Tigers to the crap Cabrera years, the crap MartinezV years, the crap Zimmermann years, ....

True but on the other hand you could say that it led us to Cabrera to begin with. I believe the extension we gave Miggy when we traded for him started at the same age Correa was now. If we weren't willing to give him that extension we wouldn't have traded for him, so by us/Mike being willing to take the chance and sign him to a big contract is what got us him for all those good years. 

[Motor City Sonics]

14 minutes ago, casimir said:

That risk lead the Tigers to the crap Cabrera years, the crap MartinezV years, the crap Zimmermann years, ....

Yeah, but we got great years before that happened.   I'll take those great years again and worry about the risk later.    This town needs something sports-wise to be happy about. 

[casimir]

53 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Yeah, but we got great years before that happened.   I'll take those great years again and worry about the risk later.    This town needs something sports-wise to be happy about. 

I don't think they need to go through a cycle of good then suck.  I want them to build something sustainable year in and year out.  I want success from the team, I'm not worried about some middling over aged bat chasing down milestones.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

True but on the other hand you could say that it led us to Cabrera to begin with. I believe the extension we gave Miggy when we traded for him started at the same age Correa was now. If we weren't willing to give him that extension we wouldn't have traded for him, so by us/Mike being willing to take the chance and sign him to a big contract is what got us him for all those good years. 

Per Cots:

Have we not learned from the extension that was signed?

One all star season out of that 8/$246M extension.  Come on, the Tigers need to do better than this going forward.

[RandyMarsh]

2 minutes ago, casimir said:

Per Cots:

Have we not learned from the extension that was signed?

One all star season out of that 8/$246M extension.  Come on, the Tigers need to do better than this going forward.

I wasn't talking about the 2nd extension, just saying that Correa is the same age that Miggy was with the 1st extension so if we played it safe then and didn't pony up the money for him in fear that he would suck in 5 or 6 years we never would've gotten him in the first place. 

[RandyMarsh]

Wonder if it was the Tigers?

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

if they have $33M more to spend each year (I think they do), better ways to spend that:

OF (Schwarber or Conforto) + Reliever (Chafin or McHugh) + Starter (Grienke or Anderson) = about $33M, for less years and less risk

Exactly the right approach