oblong Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 I'm fine with just paying him to leave. He's hurting the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 47 minutes ago, oblong said: I'm fine with just paying him to leave. He's hurting the team. Yeah, he’s a sunk contract, but I’d bring him back for another season to see if he can turn it around. At worst, he’s a very expensive defender at SS. Not sure Kreidler is any better, and no other SS in the org is close. Let’s hope we have a decision to make when McGonigle is ready (and can stay at SS). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 57 minutes ago, oblong said: I'm fine with just paying him to leave. He's hurting the team. is he the best option for 2024? who is better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Will they use the Baez contract to argue against spending on major league players? Absolutely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 I haven't looked at his numbers defensively but my eye test doesn't sell me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 hours ago, oblong said: I'm fine with just paying him to leave. He's hurting the team. Not your $98M check to write unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 A tiny part of my gut thinks Javy thinks he can be Javy again if he leaves...so there's about a .05% chance he opts out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Shinzaki said: A tiny part of my gut thinks Javy thinks he can be Javy again if he leaves...so there's about a .05% chance he opts out. .05% is way too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: .05% is way too high. Probably. But what is certainly true is that by now, it's clear that whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. Given that there has been at least some reportage that he is not an un-coachable player, maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success, because on the other hand, if I'm a player is also seems clear that Detroit is committed to what it believes and if it's not working for you, you must be the problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Probably. But what is certainly true is that by now, it's clear that whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. Given that there has been at least some reportage that he is not an un-coachable player, maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success, because on the other hand, if I'm a player is also seems clear that Detroit is committed to what it believes and if it's not working for you, you must be the problem. Hey Dummy! Stop swinging at the outside slider for the love of Peet!!!!! 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: ... whatever the Tiger coaching staff has tried to offer Javy has been a total failure. ... maybe he does see getting out of Detroit into an org that may offer him some kind of help he can use as his only route to future success... I would state it less like this... And more along the lines of "these guys don't love me anymore". Which is closer to your last sentence I think... but more personal. "These guys don't want me anymore." Because of the new Org philosophy... of commanding the strike zone and Baez... sort of doesn't. (trying to be kind here...). But if he doesn't think he can get his money back, or more, by opting out, then money probably trumps all other considerations. Then... he is probably thinking: "They're just gonna have to deal with me the way that I am. It's a signed contract." Based on that... I think the % he opts out is as close to zero as possible without hitting zero (I hate absolutes... sometimes), like 0.0001%. Edited August 30, 2023 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Hey Dummy! Stop swinging at the outside slider for the love of Peet!!!!! 🤣 The sad part with Javy is that despite whatever the Tigers want him to do or are or are not effectively helping him to do, since he has come to the Tigers it's his Z-swing % which down and his O-swing has hardly changed at all. He not swinging fewer bad pitches but swinging at significantly fewer good ones, which could be why he's a less productive hitter now. It appears possible that whatever effort he is making at being more selective is simply resulting in taking more called strikes. That said, O and Z swing rates don't tell you whether the contact made was successful or not - so large grain of salt. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/javier-baez/12979/stats?position=2B/SS Edited August 30, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 If it’s really only about the money and he doesn’t care at all about being miserable for another four years, Javy will stick around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: The sad part with Javy is that despite whatever the Tigers want him to do or are or are not effectively helping him to do, since he has come to the Tigers it's his Z-swing % which down and his O-swing has hardly changed at all. He not swinging fewer bad pitches but swinging at significantly fewer good ones, which could be why he's a less productive hitter now. It appears possible that whatever effort he is making at being more selective is simply resulting in taking more called strikes. That said, O and Z swing rates don't tell you whether the contact made was successful or not - so large grain of salt. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/javier-baez/12979/stats?position=2B/SS Um, swear I typed Harvey but must have fat fingered and autocorrected to Dummy. Yeah, it seems to be more mental thing for him than physical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 I don’t understand why he doesn’t at least move up on the plate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 14 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: I don’t understand why he doesn’t at least move up on the plate. I know, right? Javy is back so far that not only is he vulnerable to the slide a foot off the plate, he might even be vulnerable to the slide that would clip the corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 17 hours ago, chasfh said: If it’s really only about the money and he doesn’t care at all about being miserable for another four years, Javy will stick around. He'll be more miserable if he has to settle for a one-year contract with incentives. Why would any team offer him more than that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 I brought it up in another post but aside from a couple dominant months in 2021 Javy has basically been below replacement level at the plate since pre pandemic so this isn't some 1 or 1 and a half year slump like say a Bellinger had where a team might believe that it is indeed just a bad stretch. We're talking 4 years now where the overwhelming majority of the time he has been down right terrible so if he were to opt out I don't see a team offering him anything more than a 1 year incentive laden or low dollar amount contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: He'll be more miserable if he has to settle for a one-year contract with incentives. Why would any team offer him more than that? Agree that no team would offer him more than that now, but would he actually be more miserable on a one-year incentive-laden contract, on a different team, in what's basically his last chance to try to rebuild his career to his liking? I'm not so sure about that. I'd bet if he got wind that Miami would like to sign him to one, he'd be sorely tempted to opt out and take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: Agree that no team would offer him more than that now, but would he actually be more miserable on a one-year incentive-laden contract, on a different team, in what's basically his last chance to try to rebuild his career to his liking? I'm not so sure about that. I'd bet if he got wind that Miami would like to sign him to one, he'd be sorely tempted to opt out and take it. I will say that the probably of him opting out is higher tham the .05% someone suggested. Human decisions always have higher probabilities than that! But it is still low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I will say that the probably of him opting out is higher tham the .05% someone suggested. Human decisions always have higher probabilities than that! But it is still low. Yes, I agree it is very low. Ninety-eight million guaranteed dollars is a lot to walk away from. Although, having already banked $70 million, experienced the joy of winning with the Cubs versus the misery of failing with the Tigers, and lost people who were very close to him, including a grandfather just this month and a sister who had spinal bifida a few years ago, I could see Javier Baez putting more weight on the happiness/personal fulfillment side of the scale versus the money side than the average ballplayer might. I guess we'll see in November ... Edited August 31, 2023 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 4 hours ago, chasfh said: Yes, I agree it is very low. Ninety-eight million guaranteed dollars is a lot to walk away from. Although, having already banked $70 million, experienced the joy of winning with the Cubs versus the misery of failing with the Tigers, and lost people who were very close to him, including a grandfather just this month and a sister who had spinal bifida a few years ago, I could see Javier Baez putting more weight on the happiness/personal fulfillment side of the scale versus the money side than the average ballplayer might. I guess we'll see in November ... all true. And the other thing we don't really have any insight into is the frustration level between javy, the coaching staff, and Hinch. They may all still be fine and just disappointed in the outcomes, or they could all be well into a blame game dynamic and done with each other, which would play a part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Can only call up 2, right? Surprised it’s not a P and C. Nice to see Lipcius get called up. And I predict a smoking 10 games or more for him. Maton has raked since going down—has to be bummed he’s potentially getting passed over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Trey Wingenter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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