CMRivdogs Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Somewhat related I stumbled upon an early Humphrey Bogart movie last night. One of his first evidently from the ‘30s. Black Legion, based on happenings in Michigan a few years earlier. The more things change…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitalpigsmuggler Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble For 12th Straight Month, Signal Recession Imminent Quote The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) accelerated its decline in March, dropping 1.2% MoM (far more than the 0.7% decline expected). The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-leading-economic-indicators-tumble-12th-straight-month-signal-recession-imminent Just in time for the ramp up for elections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Zerohedge lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitalpigsmuggler Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said: Zerohedge lol https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators What ever happened to, "trust the data" lulz. Conference Board is one of the best sources of information on the economy. Edited April 20, 2023 by digitalpigsmuggler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 Conference board link doesn't say what zerohedge link says Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitalpigsmuggler Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, pfife said: Conference board link doesn't say what zerohedge link says The most recent recession probability estimates, based on our probability model, remain near 99 percent pointing to the likelihood of a recession in the US within the next 12 months. We continue to forecast that GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023 https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-strategy-finance-charts/CoW-Recession-Probability Edited April 20, 2023 by digitalpigsmuggler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, oblong said: My overall point is that it's early and we don't know who will or won't prevail. I have memories of Presidents Gary Hart, Mario Cuomo, Guiliani, etc. And I get that. Predictions are often wrong and I've been wrong before. But in order for DeSantis (or any of the challengers) to have a path in this field, there will have to be some sort of black swan event that changes the political landscape IMO. Obviously events will happen between then and now, but I'm really unclear what event, outside of Trump's death, would actually alter the state of the race... his grip on the base of the GOP primary electorate is strong, he continues to command 40-50+% of the base, and there really hasn't been much to-date that has shaken that grip over the last 5-6 yeats. So again, even setting aside DeSantis' weaknesses as a candidate, fundamentally it's not easy to see the case for his status in the race or his path to the nomination at this point. Other than the fact that GOP insiders who wish to capitalize on Trump's strengths without having to run Trump in a general election seem to think DeSantis is a good avatar for that. Edited April 20, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 I'm pretty certain Trump would still win the primary even if he's dead. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Jr would claim that he is the legitimate successor to his father... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 I'm not even joking. There will be some conspiracy that Trump is still alive. The ones that do accept he is dead will say the Dems whacked him and still vote for him to own the libs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, digitalpigsmuggler said: The most recent recession probability estimates, based on our probability model, remain near 99 percent pointing to the likelihood of a recession in the US within the next 12 months. We continue to forecast that GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023 https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-strategy-finance-charts/CoW-Recession-Probability Oh you said trust the data You didn't say trust the model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 You also said trust the data and literally argued we should trust the source in the same post when really you want us to trust a sources model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitalpigsmuggler Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, pfife said: You also said trust the data and literally argued we should trust the source in the same post when really you want us to trust a sources model The economy is going to tank and it's going to hurt Democrats. I never said trust the data. I said they are one of the best sources for information. Comprehension can be difficult for some folks. The following portion was taken from the article. Quote The most recent recession probability estimates, based on our probability model, remain near 99 percent pointing to the likelihood of a recession in the US within the next 12 months. We continue to forecast that GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said: Comprehension can be difficult for some folks. This statement is taking a shot at a person. Another member was given a two week suspension because they took a personal shot at YOU, and we needed to moderate. This is a warning. Argue people’s posts - ok. Cast aspersions on members- not OK. Are we clear? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 On the economy, there are a variety of opinions out there on what will happen in the next 18 months and what impacts that it may have. But I do note that, when you look at various polls, a lot of Americans actually have believed that we are already in recession and have priced in negative numbers for the President on the economy dating back into last year on account of inflation. And as far as I can tell, especially based on the massive letdown for the GOP that was the 2022 Midterm Election, it hasn't really helped the GOP all that much. So anybody confidently predicting what a recession will or won't do in today's politics should probably humble themselves a lil' bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, digitalpigsmuggler said: I never said trust the data. Lol ok chief 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Never forget, this was Bernie Sanders press secretary. Remember they railed against the establishment. What is more establishment than a Kennedy? Brianna also said the supreme court didn't matter. Weird how do many people like her were connected to Bernie Sanders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 A news alert says Biden will announce something next week. I will admit to being surprised if he runs. It’s weird and I can’t explain it. I expect he will but also be shocked. I know it doesn’t make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I have a feeling if Biden wins he steps down about two years in so Harris gets a chance. I'm not sure though if Harris would want that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 3 hours ago, mtutiger said: On the economy, there are a variety of opinions out there on what will happen in the next 18 months and what impacts that it may have. But I do note that, when you look at various polls, a lot of Americans actually have believed that we are already in recession and have priced in negative numbers for the President on the economy dating back into last year on account of inflation. And as far as I can tell, especially based on the massive letdown for the GOP that was the 2022 Midterm Election, it hasn't really helped the GOP all that much. So anybody confidently predicting what a recession will or won't do in today's politics should probably humble themselves a lil' bit. there isn't much precedent in recent memory for a 'full-employment recession' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Who is going to be Trump's evangelical straight man VP if he wins? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: there isn't much precedent in recent memory for a 'full-employment recession' Yeah, not sure I can recall that either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I don't care what your politics are.... you need some element of charm and charisma. I met **** DeVos in 2002, he was running for Gov against Jenny. I was going to vote for him. The guy looked "through" me as if I wasn't there. There was no connection at all during our brief 20 second encounter. Like a person on drugs you run into at the gas station as they are buying more scratch offs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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