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2024 Presidential Election thread


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6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think Biden is doing great, and assuming he still is by next November, I'll be happy to root for him to win again.

Must be part of the 25%

White House Withholds Requested Info About Biden’s Classified Doc Scandal Cover-Up

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The White House has refused to disclose requested information to the House Oversight Committee about who covered up President Biden’s classified document scandal from the American people for 68 days before it was leaked to CBS News.

In a letter obtained Tuesday by Breitbart News, the White House refused to provide the requested information to the committee’s investigation of the scandal, claiming it did not force the National Archives (NARA) to withhold a public statement on the scandal.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/03/21/white-house-withholds-requested-info-about-bidens-classified-doc-scandal-cover-up/

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43 minutes ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

useless finding. You could have done the same survey on GOP a few weeks ago and found they didn't want Trumpus to run. Whether people "want" someone to run is a silly question because it's comparing the real world to everyone's utopian imagination, which always wins the question. But their imagination will not be on the ballot when the time comes to actually vote.

On a related note, I was having a conversation with a Chinese born co-worker, and he mentioned that something he was finding weird about America is that we have assumed a cultural attitude of complaint about *everything*. It doesn't matter what you ask Americans about, they are dissatisified with it. This attitude shift is really screwing up social survery work because surveyers are faced with two bad choices: The model says you must ask the same questions every year for the answers to be comparable, but if attitudes and patterns of language use shift such that the questions operate at a different level of meaning to people, then the answers aren't comparable unless you do change the questions to dig down to a more serious answer than the average American's current level of flippancy about everything. And of course if you do change the question, the original reasons not to still apply. The pollsters are going to continue to find people on both sides of the ideological spectrum actually getting more votes than standard method "approval" style questions would predict.

Edited by gehringer_2
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18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

useless finding. You could have done the same survey on GOP a few weeks ago and found they didn't want Trumpus to run. Whether people "want" someone to run is a silly question because it's comparing the real world to everyone's utopian imagination, which always wins the question. But their imagination will not be on the ballot when the time comes to actually vote.

On a related note, I was having a conversation with a Chinese born co-worker, and he mentioned that something he was finding weird about America is that we have assumed a cultural attitude of complaint about *everything*. It doesn't matter what you ask Americans about, they are dissatisified with it. This attitude shift is really screwing up social survery work because surveyers are faced with two bad choices: The model says you must ask the same questions every year for the answers to be comparable, but if attitudes and patterns of language use shift such that the questions operate at a different level of meaning to people, then the answers aren't comparable unless you do change the questions to dig down to a more serious answer than the average American's current level of flippancy about everything. And of course if you do change the question, the original reasons not to still apply. The pollsters are going to continue to find people on both sides of the ideological spectrum actually getting more votes than standard method "approval" style questions would predict.

Just for grins and to agree with you

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/donald-trump-investigations/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

  • More than six in ten Americans (61%) do not want Trump to be President, again. 38% want him to be elected to another term. 89% of Democrats, 64% independents, and 21% of Republicans do not want Trump to return to the White House. 76% of Republicans want Trump to be president, again. Of note, 41% of white Evangelical Christians are against a second Trump Administration.

  • 39% of Americans, notched down from 42% in November of 2022, have a favorable opinion of Trump. 51% have an unfavorable view of the former president.

We can all cherry pick as well as pig guano

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Nate Silver mentioned months ago about these polls and the binary aspect being misleading.   Someone might say they are not a fan of Biden as a preferred choice, and answer the poll/quesiton that way,  but they damn well will vote for him if on the ballot regardless of who's on the other side.

 

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1 hour ago, digitalpigsmuggler said:

Even if they don't want him to run they'll still vote for him and he'll likely beat that indicted bitch on the other side. Have fun losing again. 🙂 

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8 hours ago, oblong said:

Nate Silver mentioned months ago about these polls and the binary aspect being misleading.   Someone might say they are not a fan of Biden as a preferred choice, and answer the poll/question that way,  but they damn well will vote for him if on the ballot regardless of who's on the other side.

BINGO!!!

Put another way... it doesn't even MATTER who the Dem nominee is, Biden or otherwise...

I'm voting straight Dem ticket 2024.

Until the GQP Fascist Party is eliminated as a threat to our Democracy/ Constitution of the United States.

Republican Party (as I used to know them) no longer exists or is a voting option for me. Bar none.

Edited by 1984Echoes
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22 hours ago, oblong said:

Nate Silver mentioned months ago about these polls and the binary aspect being misleading.   Someone might say they are not a fan of Biden as a preferred choice, and answer the poll/quesiton that way,  but they damn well will vote for him if on the ballot regardless of who's on the other side.

 

This describes me to a T.

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22 hours ago, oblong said:

Nate Silver mentioned months ago about these polls and the binary aspect being misleading.   Someone might say they are not a fan of Biden as a preferred choice, and answer the poll/quesiton that way,  but they damn well will vote for him if on the ballot regardless of who's on the other side.

 

I wouldn't blame the polls so much as I would the horserace pundits who could never get the nuance. 2022 was a bit of a perfect storm because when you combine the tendency for the incumbent's party to lose badly during the first midterm with the internalization of the idea that polling would always be biased toward Democrats (as it was in 2016 and 2020), it really blinded a lot of these folks to some other trends in the electorate and the idea that 2022 was a more unique environment that might not match conventional wisdom.

I think a lot about how the punditry just completely downplayed Dobbs as an issue.... like, they recognized it for the first month or so after the decision, but it's almost like they assumed that because there was less reporting and less buzz about the issue going into the fall, that meant it no longer mattered or had much of a bearing on swing voters. And that appears to be completely wrong.

Either way, I just think the situation is much different now.... the Dave Wasserman and Amy Walter types may have harder jobs in this day and age and can't just fall back onto "conventional wisdom" to do their jobs.

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