Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, KL2 said: 11 is a lot different than 2 My point was the potential value of the 1st round pick next year. I'm sure you read the post where I mentioned the value of trading from 3 to 12 that netted 3 1st round picks vs only two from going 11 to 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I thought Taylor Decker should have been a Pro Bowler last year so I would absolutely take four Taylor Decker's. This team needs good depth as much as anything. In the hypothetical Eagles trade, you would also have three 1st round picks next year you could use to obtain a game changing star. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 It's not like you can't get a game changer at 15 either, just this past draft the biggest game changer on defense Micah Parsons went 12th. This isn't the NBA where those guys are hard to find. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said: It's not like you can't get a game changer at 15 either, just this past draft the biggest game changer on defense Micah Parsons went 12th. This isn't the NBA where those guys are hard to find. All about the scouting... And some luck in the draft (that your guy falls to you...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagnam Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Still can’t believe Parsons fell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: My point was the potential value of the 1st round pick next year. I'm sure you read the post where I mentioned the value of trading from 3 to 12 that netted 3 1st round picks vs only two from going 11 to 20. Yes and if i wanted to discuss that I would have. I wanted to talk about the part that read "The Giants went from 11 to 20 last year and this year ended up getting the 7th overall pick." Hence, "11 is a lot different than two" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: It's not like you can't get a game changer at 15 either, just this past draft the biggest game changer on defense Micah Parsons went 12th. This isn't the NBA where those guys are hard to find. No. But, its like arguing well you can get Trout at 20. You could also get Ryan Perry. All studies have shown you have a higher chance to get a super-impact player higher in the draft. Yes, they can be found later. More likely to find one earlier though. The risk of moving from 2 to 15 and hoping to get an impact player is too great. More than anytinng, the Lions need impact players that make other coordinators go let's scheme for that guy. They currently have zero. While they need solid, he had a 10 year career and made a pro bowl guys, nobody has ever won with no impact players. So it becomes a matter of Hutchinson/Tib vs Lindebaum and Penn State DE (or whatever). Second set is soild guys, but not guys that make all pro teams. If you are talking the giants picks, you have a better argument. But, the drop from 2 to 15 is too great to find what we need the most. Edited January 20, 2022 by KL2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said: I thought Taylor Decker should have been a Pro Bonwler last year so I would absolutely take four Taylor Decker's. This team needs good depth as much as anything. Congrats you've built the NFL-version of Iowa. Sure, they can win a lot of games. But, there is a reason why they fall on their face in big games against good opponents. Look, yes, we need solid guys. But, they mean little without game changers. The team right now needs impact players waaaaaaaay more than it needs good depth. That's what got quinn in trouble. Heingkept worry about having enough solid starters or the backups being just as good. Screw that. Find game changers. They are needed and make the players around them better. The extra pick next year is just kicking the can down the road. You still gotta find those highend players. If we get zero this year cause we moved back and ended up with two solid guys, then next year we have picks 3, 18, 29. We end up with one high impact guy. If we take the high-impact guy this year at 2, in theory, we are likley still not going to be great. Cause few rookies have that kind of impact. So I still have pick 3 and pick 29 next year. Now, I got, again in theory, two high impact guys. It's all about finding high impact guys and working from there. focus on that and it makes everything else a lot easier. If you just end up with a bunch of solids you are still searching for the imapct guys. You really haven't addressed the root of why you're not winning when it counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) I totally agree with you that it is about finding impact guys, I'm just not convinced that the guy we are going to get that at 2 this year is that guy. If Suh or Calvin were sitting there at 2 like the last two times we had that pick we wouldn't be having this debate, I'd grab them and run, but they're not, there isn't much difference if any between the mid 1st round guys and the guys at the top this year. With the extra picks we'd get multiple chances to try to get that impact guy along with another chance next year. Edited January 20, 2022 by RandyMarsh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: I totally agree with you that it is about finding impact guys, I'm just not convinced that the guy we are going to get that at 2 this year is that guy. If Suh or Calvin were sitting there at 2 like the last two times we had that pick we wouldn't be having this debate, I'd grab them and run, but they're not, there isn't much difference if any between the mid 1st round guys and the guys at the top this year. With the extra picks we'd get multiple chances to try to get that impact guy along with another chance next year. but that's why its unrealistic to think the eagles would give up 3 or 4 first rounders to move up in this year's draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 15 hours ago, Hongbit said: No no no. Im not sure that 3 picks in the mid teens would be close to the #2. 3 picks in the mid teens is a massive overpay for #2 in this draft. I think it's completely unrealistic that the Eagles would offer all three of their 1sts for that pick in a draft without an elite QB prospect. IF the Eagles offer that, you run away laughing. Maybe it's possible that the Eagles love a QB more than just about everybody else does and is willing to offer a haul for #2 but I think it's pretty unrealistic. Edited January 20, 2022 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, NYLion said: 3 picks in the mid teens is a massive overpay for #2 in this draft. I think it's completely unrealistic that the Eagles would offer all three of their 1sts for that pick in a draft without an elite QB prospect. IF the Eagles offer that, you run away laughing. Maybe it's possible that the Eagles love a QB more than just about everybody else does and is willing to offer a haul for #2 but I think it's pretty unrealistic. This is the only way I could see it happening, for any team. If Kenny Pickett takes a huge leap in the coming months, and they want to jump the Texans to get him. Of course, if Pickett does take that leap, Jacksonville may be a more likely trade partner for them, given that they may feel they need to jump Detroit too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said: This is the only way I could see it happening, for any team. If Kenny Pickett takes a huge leap in the coming months, and they want to jump the Texans to get him. Of course, if Pickett does take that leap, Jacksonville may be a more likely trade partner for them, given that they may feel they need to jump Detroit too. I guess it's because people are desperate to find a QB, any QB, that can be elite in this class but I don't get the Pickett hype. He seems like a pretty generic QB to me, nice arm but nothing special, decent mobility but not a burner by any means, decent size, pretty good accuracy, tiny hands. These physical traits can also describe Burrow although Burrow's accuracy is deadly accurate but he's a rare breed. I think Pickett could be good but I don't see elite upside even if all goes well with his development whereas guys like Corral and Willis are higher risk but have higher upside IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, buddha said: but that's why its unrealistic to think the eagles would give up 3 or 4 first rounders to move up in this year's draft. It's also why they could trade the 15th spot for the 2nd spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I never thought a team would trade three 1st round picks for Trey Lance but it happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganCardinal Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, NYLion said: I guess it's because people are desperate to find a QB, any QB, that can be elite in this class but I don't get the Pickett hype. He seems like a pretty generic QB to me, nice arm but nothing special, decent mobility but not a burner by any means, decent size, pretty good accuracy, tiny hands. These physical traits can also describe Burrow although Burrow's accuracy is deadly accurate but he's a rare breed. I think Pickett could be good but I don't see elite upside even if all goes well with his development whereas guys like Corral and Willis are higher risk but have higher upside IMO. I think Pickett is comparable to Mac Jones. He’s pro ready in the right circumstances, but he’s not at all likely to be the next generational QB. That may actually be most appealing to teams like the Eagles, Colts, Broncos, or Steelers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: It's also why they could trade the 15th spot for the 2nd spot. i doubt that too. 12 to 3 cost 3 first rounders. 15 to 2 is an even bigger leap. has anyone ever done a leap that big in the modern draft? i dont know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, buddha said: i doubt that too. 12 to 3 cost 3 first rounders. 15 to 2 is an even bigger leap. has anyone ever done a leap that big in the modern draft? i dont know. The big difference is that Lance was a far better prospect than any in this draft and this draft is unique in the sense that there are no QB prospects that are considered surefire top 10 picks (when was the last time this was the case?). It's why I don't take those trade value charts seriously because it doesn't take into account situational value. Of course, the valuation of prospects can vary wildly from team to team but if the scouting consensus is any indication, I don't see it being in any way realistic that Philly would offer 3 1sts (mid 1sts in this case) for #2 but crazier shit has happened so who knows. Edited January 20, 2022 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, buddha said: i doubt that too. 12 to 3 cost 3 first rounders. 15 to 2 is an even bigger leap. has anyone ever done a leap that big in the modern draft? i dont know. Like you mentioned before, there isn't the prime talent at 2nd like there usually is so that is why the Lions would go 2 to 15 while also picking up the 16th and a future 1st. For Philadelphia, two of the three picks are locked in and they know what they are losing. The future 1st would be the gamble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 At this time in the draft last year, there was a lot of talk about Lance being available to the Lions at 7th. He was seen as the 4th QB behind Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields. His value then rose and the 49ers spent three 1sts on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: At this time in the draft last year, there was a lot of talk about Lance being available to the Lions at 7th. He was seen as the 4th QB behind Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields. His value then rose and the 49ers spent three 1sts on him. yeah - there are always guys that teams fall in love with at the combine and private workouts so things are sure to shift, but who knows in which direction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 i just did a pff mock and philly traded me three firsts, so there you go. lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason_R Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Is there anyone outside of this board talking about Philly moving up? I’m not seeing it. They just made the playoffs. They play in a weak division with only Dallas as a threat. Their GM just publicly committed to starting Hurts next season, so they have seen enough to build the offense around him in year two of his contract. They will add blue chip talent around him and compete for the division next year then decide if he is the guy. They are not trading those picks to decide which of three pedestrian and indistinguishable QB prospects they want to roll the dice on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley70 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If one of these QB's blows up in the interview and team workout process, Detroit will probably be as interested as anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYLion Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: At this time in the draft last year, there was a lot of talk about Lance being available to the Lions at 7th. He was seen as the 4th QB behind Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields. His value then rose and the 49ers spent three 1sts on him. This isn't really true though. It was Lawrence at 1, Wilson at 2 and Lance or Fields as a toss up for 3rd QB taken with Jones sneaking up late. There was tons of chatter of teams looking to trade up for months before the draft hit. The QB desire in this draft isn't even in the same stratosphere even when comparing the top QB on the board to the 5th QB on the board last year so I can't imagine that the 2nd pick has near the value of what the 3rd pick had last year. Of course this could change as we near the draft but based on what we know now, no QB seems desirable enough to give up a big haul for. It's similar to the Okudah draft in a way. The Lions have that high pick but does anybody REALLY want it? And that was a draft with higher regarded QBs. Edited January 20, 2022 by NYLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.