2023 Detroit Tigers Regular Season Discussion Thread

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Meaning the team is too patient in general? I don’t believe so.

Here are key Tigers hitting results by month so far (from FanGraphs):

For context, the Tigers’ walk rate in March/April ranked 22nd in baseball; in May as of this morning, it ranks sixth.

As we can see, walk rate is up and strikeout rate is also down, so they are “controlling the strike zone” much more effectively this month. On base is up with the walk rate, of course, and ISO is also up substantially, with homers ticking up by +35% per game. Stolen bases and baserunning runs are roughly the same—not much difference there.

Otherwise, two things jump out at me:

• AVG and SLG are both up despite the drop in BABIP. That’s one result of putting the ball in play more by striking out less. This is also resulting in more homers.
• Runs per game are up by more than a full run per game.

I think increased walk rate had something to do with all this. By taking more pitches and not chasing outside the zone, it’s forcing pitchers to come into the zone to try to get outs. They can’t rely on Tiger hitters getting themselves out at the plate as much. They have to hope our guys get themselves out by hitting the ball to fielders. That is happening more—at the expense of allowing the Tigers to score more runs.

This looks like exactly like the Harris plan showing signs of coming to fruition. Imagine how good this offense could be if we had actual talented hitters.

This is a good analysis, but I was mostly asking about those particular players.  Maton and Rogers have above average walk rates and are leading the team in home runs, but both are way below .200 in batting average.  Both are below average with Rogers at 73 wRC+ and Maton at 68 wRC+.  Would they have better performance if they didn't try to walk so much?  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I think increased walk rate had something to do with all this.

As well as not facing the Tampa pitching staff.....

the other thing I was implying about Torkeson is that not every batter on a team should necessarily have the same approach. I want Torkelson to walk enough that pitchers know they can't get him out outside the strike zone, but I don't want him to be in the box thinking OBP is his primary calling card as a hitter either.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

This is a good analysis, but I was mostly asking about those particular players.  Maton and Rogers have above average walk rates and are leading the team in home runs, but both are way below .200 in batting average.  Both are below average with Rogers at 73 wRC+ and Maton at 68 wRC+.  Would they have better performance if they didn't try to walk so much?  

I think Rogers is to be taken with a grain of salt.  He’s a catcher for one, primarily a defense first catcher.  Sure, he might have some pop, but I don’t think anyone considers him to much offense to begin with.  And the other thing is his return to actual game action.  He missed quite a bit of time as a catcher and as a hitter.  I think that’s quite a bit to miss.  Sure, he can remain part of the game planning while injured and working with pitchers from afar, but actively catching them is another thing.  And then along those lines, how many different pitchers have the Tigers been through the past season plus?

Maton is a bit of a victim of the BABIP pendulum so far.  He is striking out worse than and walking better than league averages.  But his BABIP is also under .200.  Looks like he might be going opposite field and fly ball too much?  I don’t know.  Perhaps the approach is affecting the results.

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

Meaning the team is too patient in general? I don’t believe so.

Here are key Tigers hitting results by month so far (from FanGraphs):

For context, the Tigers’ walk rate in March/April ranked 22nd in baseball; in May as of this morning, it ranks sixth.

As we can see, walk rate is up and strikeout rate is also down, so they are “controlling the strike zone” much more effectively this month. On base is up with the walk rate, of course, and ISO is also up substantially, with homers ticking up by +35% per game. Stolen bases and baserunning runs are roughly the same—not much difference there.

Otherwise, two things jump out at me:

• AVG and SLG are both up despite the drop in BABIP. That’s one result of putting the ball in play more by striking out less. This is also resulting in more homers.
• Runs per game are up by more than a full run per game.

I think increased walk rate had something to do with all this. By taking more pitches and not chasing outside the zone, it’s forcing pitchers to come into the zone to try to get outs. They can’t rely on Tiger hitters getting themselves out at the plate as much. They have to hope our guys get themselves out by hitting the ball to fielders. That is happening more—at the expense of allowing the Tigers to score more runs.

This looks like exactly like the Harris plan showing signs of coming to fruition. Imagine how good this offense could be if we had actual talented hitters.

I forgot to mention where we ranked in strikeouts during May. 

 

[Tenacious D]

I’d like to see these infield configurations moving forward:

Vs RH:

1B Tork, 2B Maton, SS Baez, 3B McKistrey

vs LH:

1B Tork, 2B Baez, SS Short, 3B McKistrey

Can someone please convey this to Hinch for me?

[Tigermojo]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I’d like to see these infield configurations moving forward:

Vs RH:

1B Tork, 2B Maton, SS Baez, 3B McKistrey

vs LH:

1B Tork, 2B Baez, SS Short, 3B McKistrey

Can someone please convey this to Hinch for me?

Knight to Queen 7

Rook to Bishop 6

Mate in 3 moves

[RatkoVarda]

If Harris had kept payroll at 2022 level, he would have added 2 more FA for $13m, like Chafin + Mancini. I’m sure that made Ilitch happy. But looks like that was a bad decision to go cheap, and that looks worse now with how things are shaking out so far.

[Tenacious D]

I really don’t think Ilitch told Harris he couldn’t spend.  I think that was Scott’s decision.  Chafin opted out—who knows how happy he was in Detroit?

[RandyMarsh]

Harris was in a bit of a tough spot this past offseason, you figured we weren't as bad as our record was last year but at the same time you didn't know for sure nor know how much better we might be so it was hard to gauge whether we should possibly sell off whatever assets we had or spend money trying to compete.

Harris played it cautiously and probably correctly by not making any major franchise altering moves but instead electing to just make minor moves with high upside like trading off relievers for potential everyday players. I think he took this year to gauge what players he wants to keep going forward and to see whether 2022 was just a completely unlucky year or if that was the type of roster we really have. Assuming we play like this for the whole year I'd imagine that he will probably be more active this offseason if there are players available that could help take the team to another level. 

[mtutiger]

6 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I really don’t think Ilitch told Harris he couldn’t spend.  I think that was Scott’s decision.  Chafin opted out—who knows how happy he was in Detroit?

Also note how "shoulda kept Chafin and Fulmer" has now been trimmed down to just Chafin, since Fulmer now sucks?

We really don't know the degree to which Chafin was open to coming back here... for some reason, people act as if this is the same as rolling down to Meijer and buying a rump roast - maaaaybe free agency a little more complicated than that.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Also note how "shoulda kept Chafin and Fulmer" has now been trimmed down to just Chafin, since Fulmer now sucks?

We really don't know the degree to which Chafin was open to coming back here... for some reason, people act as if this is the same as rolling down to Meijer and buying a rump roast - maaaaybe free agency a little more complicated than that.

It may have had as much to do with the opportunity to close as well. The BP in Ari was wide open coming into this season, and Chafin has been able to at least share the closers role. In Det he had been behind Soto last season and could see Lange as the favorite son this season and maybe figured Ariz was a much better shot to build closer credentials toward a  bigger 2024 payday.

That's not anybody's failure, (and it's not some knock on Detroit as a city to play in either) it's a measure of organization's BP strength if the guy saw a better shot at the closer's role somewhere else.

Edited May 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

58 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It may have had as much to do with the opportunity to close as well. The BP in Ari was wide open coming into this season, and Chafin has been able to at least share the closers role. In Det he had been behind Soto last season and could see Lange as the favorite son this season and maybe figured Ariz was a much better shot to build closer credentials toward a  bigger 2024 payday.

That's not anybody's failure, (and it's not some knock on Detroit as a city to play in either) it's a measure of organization's BP strength if the guy saw a better shot at the closer's role somewhere else.

Totally... it's easy for us to sit on the sidelines and act like it's simply a out the will of the owner and/or GM, but for 763rd time, the word "agency" is in "free agency" for a reason.

Really, in terms of the waters the Tigers were swimming in this offseason, the one cheaper option that would have been nice to have would be Brian Anderson... no idea if they tried or not, but I thought he would have made sense. He's put up a nice season for the Brewers and his production at third would have been a nice value add.

But again, it's a competitive process involving humans. There are no guarantees 

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

...(and it's not some knock on Detroit as a city to play in either)...

Absolutely right, there is a false narrative out there that for some reason people won't play in Detroit "because of the organization".  It's 100% fantasy, that gets stated as fact.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Harris was in a bit of a tough spot this past offseason, you figured we weren't as bad as our record was last year but at the same time you didn't know for sure nor know how much better we might be so it was hard to gauge whether we should possibly sell off whatever assets we had or spend money trying to compete.

Harris played it cautiously and probably correctly by not making any major franchise altering moves but instead electing to just make minor moves with high upside like trading off relievers for potential everyday players. I think he took this year to gauge what players he wants to keep going forward and to see whether 2022 was just a completely unlucky year or if that was the type of roster we really have. Assuming we play like this for the whole year I'd imagine that he will probably be more active this offseason if there are players available that could help take the team to another level. 

I believe Harris was never going to spend this season, and that he won't spend next season, either. The first order of business is restructuring the entire organization to build a sustainable winner. The feast-famine cycle of throw big money at free agents to win suddenly-tank for draft picks and/or cost savings appears to be over. Thankfully.

[Toddwert]

7 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Also note how "shoulda kept Chafin and Fulmer" has now been trimmed down to just Chafin, since Fulmer now sucks?

We really don't know the degree to which Chafin was open to coming back here... for some reason, people act as if this is the same as rolling down to Meijer and buying a rump roast - maaaaybe free agency a little more complicated than that.

And we don’t know how many guys wanted to come back and we’re turned down because Harris just wanted to do his own thing……. 

[SoCalTiger]

It also could have simply been an element of time and priorities. The entire organization- top to bottom- majors and Minors - was mess and Harris had to restructure all of it - coaches- philosophy -training- stadium - nutrition - Medical - moving his family - roster pruning etc takes time as does recruiting free agents. 

[mtutiger]

5 hours ago, Toddwert said:

And we don’t know how many guys wanted to come back and we’re turned down because Harris just wanted to do his own thing……. 

So we just default to assuming Chafin wanted to come back?

[Toddwert]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

So we just default to assuming Chafin wanted to come back?

I don’t see where I said that….we don’t anything so why assume something we don’t know?
 

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

I don’t see where I said that….we don’t anything so why assume something we don’t know?
 

Most comments about free agency lament the Tigers not going and bringing Chafin back. Which assumes he wanted to in the first place.

So why assume something we don't know?

Edited May 29, 2023 by mtutiger

[Toddwert]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Most comments about free agency lament the Tigers not going and bringing Chafin back. Which assumes he wanted to in the first place.

So why assume something we don't know?

And I was just pointing out it’s possible that Harris didn’t bring him back for reasons we don’t know about

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

And I was just pointing out it’s possible that Harris didn’t bring him back for reasons we don’t know about

Very possible.

But again, the default position of much of the fan base seems to be that Chafin was available to come back. And I'm not sure that is actually the case. 

[Jim Cowan]

23 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Very possible.

But again, the default position of much of the fan base seems to be that Chafin was available to come back. And I'm not sure that is actually the case. 

I think it's unlikely.

[Toddwert]

9 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I think it's unlikely.

And you’d think it would be unlikely that someone would draft a HS pitcher over Marcelo Mayers but at least we’re talking about humans and they do dumb things sometimes

[mtutiger]

What on earth does Marcelo Mayer have to do with Andrew Chafin or his agency on the market?

[Toddwert]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

What on earth does Marcelo Mayer have to do with Andrew Chafin or his agency on the market?

Nothing I’m saying just because it’s unlikely doesn’t mean it didn’t happen…. Hell it was very unlikely trump got elected but we know how that went