Coronavirus: Already In a Neighborhood Near You

[Motown Bombers]

43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Just FYI:

I have no problem with NAFTA.

I'm an Independent. Caucus with Centrist Democrats. This type of Republican ideas win with me.

I'm on board with NAFTA. And TPP and other such...

PS: George W Bush approved China's entry into the WTO.

Also... the loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs is another, more complex issue. We were losing those jobs in the early 80's before NAFTA and the WTO. Steel, Auto, etc. were all getting hammered by cheap Japanese cars, gas-guzzling American cars affected by OPEC's shenanigans, etc. NAFTA didn't really affect manufacturing, at least IIRC the data shows that, but letting China into the WTO opened the floodgates.

Anecdotally, my father worked at Ford and his best decade was by far the 90's. He was getting more overtime than he could handle. He's a big fan of Clinton. Things were rougher in the 70's and 80's. 

[Tigerbomb13]

Meat Loaf being (what it seams) anti vax and dying of COVID makes me sad. 

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

NAFTA DOES have something to do with it...

Oh... WAIT for it...

It was started by Ronald Reagan, and brought to agreement under Bush. Oh... you thought because it started in 1993 that it was all Clinton?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement

Free trade in North America, between Canada and the United States, was implemented by Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney in 1988.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I see a big, likely the most important, variable was not factored into that study.

 

Beware of overconfident numbers presented in a fancy way. There is no way anybody can quantify risk to the fourth decimal percentage point.

HaHa - we still have a few faculty in the Engin school who take joy in nailing students who report too many sig figs!

But TBF, if you are using a spreadsheet and you want it to look decent you have to pick a number of decimals that covers all the magnitudes - so I'd cut the authors some slack. We probably shouldn't take the fact that too many sig figs appear in the larger numbers as an implication of certainty as much as an artifact of presentation form. Short of using scientific notation, which would make it hard to read, or having all the columns out of line what are your choices? I suppose they could have forced non-sig digits on the right to zero, if they knew how - but that's only marginally better.

[Edman85]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

HaHa - we still have a few faculty in the Engin school who take joy in nailing students who report too many sig figs!

But TBF, if you are using a spreadsheet and you want it to look decent you have to pick a number of decimals that covers all the magnitudes - so I'd cut the authors some slack. We probably shouldn't take the fact that too many sig figs appear in the larger numbers as an implication of certainty as much as an artifact of presentation form. Short of using scientific notation, which would make it hard to read, or having all the columns out of line what are your choices? I suppose they could have forced non-sig digits on the right to zero, if they knew how - but that's only marginally better.

My biggest issue with that study is it is obvious covid risk depends on being vaccinated or not and that wasn't even factored.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Meat Loaf being (what it seams) anti vax and dying of COVID makes me sad. 

I'm not surprised about it (those have always been his politics), but it's definitely sad nonetheless. Really talented and gifted performer.

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Just FYI:

I have no problem with NAFTA.

I'm an Independent. Caucus with Centrist Democrats. This type of Republican ideas win with me.

I'm on board with NAFTA. And TPP and other such...

I would just add that, while there's a debate to be had over whether NAFTA has been good overall, it's also worth noting that NAFTA hasn't been universally bad in every corner of the United States - it absolutely has been a huge boon to the economy in my state.

That tends to get lost in these discussions... it's less a situation where it's universally bad for everyone, more a situation with tradeoffs where some make out better than others.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

🤔

Read the whole thing... please don't cherry pick:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAFTA's_effect_on_United_States_employment#:~:text=According to the Economic Policy Institute's study%2C 61% of the,relatively high paying manufacturing jobs.

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I would just add that, while there's a debate to be had over whether NAFTA has been good overall, it's also worth noting that NAFTA hasn't been universally bad in every corner of the United States - it absolutely has been a huge boon to the economy in my state.

That tends to get lost in these discussions... it's less a situation where it's universally bad for everyone, more a situation with tradeoffs where some make out better than others.

The export industry.

Which, coincidentally... benefits manufacturing.

That's the nuance of what I just posted above. A loss of manufacturing jobs, but gains in other high-paying jobs like export. A 2% decrease in unemployment after NAFTA compared to the 2% higher in the previous decade. 27 million gross employment gain over the following decade. But a loss in negotiating power for blue collar manufacturers. It's a very mixed bag.

But like every other previous decade in America, there were extensive changes and since we are a nation that always looks to the future... it's adapt or sink.

A lot of new high-paying jobs... in IT, Engineering, etc...

Coincidentally, I believe we have the same number of manufacturing jobs today 3.5 million, as we did in 1985, 3.5 million. Something like that... but I'd have to go check the numbers to verify how on or off I am on that.

[Jim Cowan]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

HaHa - we still have a few faculty in the Engin school who take joy in nailing students who report too many sig figs

Actuarial tables are like that, they can calculate your life expectancy to 5 decimal places, more than that if you want.  The 5th decimal place is about 30 minutes I think.

[Tiger337]

10 hours ago, buddha said:

we'll see if the restrictions on immigration and the lack of families having children leads to the us having severe labor shortages.  that will likely drive wage gains and might decrease some of the dreaded inequality that worries us comfortably middle class people from the comfort of our keyboards.

It's not OK for middle class people to feel concern for others who don't have it as good?  

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

HaHa - we still have a few faculty in the Engin school who take joy in nailing students who report too many sig figs!

But TBF, if you are using a spreadsheet and you want it to look decent you have to pick a number of decimals that covers all the magnitudes - so I'd cut the authors some slack. We probably shouldn't take the fact that too many sig figs appear in the larger numbers as an implication of certainty as much as an artifact of presentation form. Short of using scientific notation, which would make it hard to read, or having all the columns out of line what are your choices? I suppose they could have forced non-sig digits on the right to zero, if they knew how - but that's only marginally better.

It's always a big question when we do presentations or publish journal articles as to how many decimal places we should include in the tables.  I didn't get the concern about credibility though.  It's more a matter of presentation.  What is the ideal number of decimal places to include for your audience?  If we are presenting to other scientists, it's not a concern as they can round off anyway they please.  If we are presenting to a more casual audience, then we usually use fewer decimal places, so they can read it more easily.  I never really thought about how too many decimal places would make you less credible.   

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

My biggest issue with that study is it is obvious covid risk depends on being vaccinated or not and that wasn't even factored.

Yes, that is certainly a very important variable.  

[CMRivdogs]

 

[1984Echoes]

16 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Free trade in North America, between Canada and the United States, was implemented by Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney in 1988.

Yes, but I don't think it was ratified by US Congress until 1993... so it wasn't "official" until the ratification.

[gehringer_2]

Depends on how you want to parse 'official'.  Congress had given Reagan authority to negotiate the deal with Canada, so once that deal was signed by Reagan and Mulroney it was fully legally in force. NAFTA superseded it and did need Congressional approval because Congress had not given the WH authority to implement a deal with Mexico without their approval.

Edited January 22, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Archie]

NAFTA is 100% the responsibility of President Clinton who signed it into law.  If it was such a bad bill, Clinton shouldn't have signed it.  I think its funny how so many people try to deflect this from the dems and Clinton.  When everyone thought it was such a great thing the dems were all about taking credit for it.  When it proved to be hurting the US and the workers then NAFTA was the fault of Bush.  Getting rid of NAFTA was another good thing  President Trump did in office.

[oblong]

More democrats opposed it than supported it in congress.  Yes Clinton signed it but many of his party didn’t like it.  It was a Republican initiative and as a guy presenting himself as a New Democrat Clinton signed it. I don’t hold it against him. But it definitely wasn’t a Democratic Party push. 

[Jim Cowan]

Since when did Trump get rid of NAFTA?  NAFTA 2.0 is 99% the same as the original.  Still has a dispute resolution mechanism, still has protected dairy markets - those were Trump's 2 hot issues and he caved on both of them, as usual. There are some conditions associated with Mexican auto manufacturing now (a Canadian demand).  People who think NAFTA 2.0 is a new deal have no idea what was in the original.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

21 hours ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

Meat Loaf being (what it seams) anti vax and dying of COVID makes me sad. 

He would do anything for love, but won't get vaxxed. It's sad that these completely preventable deaths are not being prevented because of misinformation and lies being spread on the internet.

[gehringer_2]

On 1/19/2022 at 2:42 PM, buddha said:

roberts came out and said he never asked the justices to wear masks, thus proving the report false.

I guess you've never watched a confirmation hearing if you believe a JOTSC won't lie in  public when it's convenient. 

Also turns out turns out Totenberg is standing by her reporting. That Sotomayor is not conferencing - which is  hard fact,  seems prima facie evidence enough that all is not sweetness and light at the court.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/totenberg-scotus-masks/2022/01/21/18bddd96-7ade-11ec-bf97-6eac6f77fba2_story.html

Edited January 22, 2022 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I guess you've never watched a confirmation hearing if you believe a JOTSC won't lie in  public when it's convenient. 

Also turns out turns out Totenberg is standing by her reporting. That Sotomayor is not conferencing - which is  hard fact,  seems prima facie evidence enough that all is not sweetness and light at the court.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/totenberg-scotus-masks/2022/01/21/18bddd96-7ade-11ec-bf97-6eac6f77fba2_story.html

i guess you've never read a newspaper if you believe journalists won't lie to save their credibility, break a story, or just save their own asses.  🤣

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, oblong said:

More democrats opposed it than supported it in congress.  Yes Clinton signed it but many of his party didn’t like it.  It was a Republican initiative and as a guy presenting himself as a New Democrat Clinton signed it. I don’t hold it against him. But it definitely wasn’t a Democratic Party push. 

A deal like NAFTA is a multiple administration ordeal. If it was negotiated across administrations, everyone has their fingers on it IMO.

But again, NAFTA is complicated... whether one sees it as good or bad really depends on what industry one is in or what part of the country one lives. 

Go tell someone down in the Rio Grande Valley that NAFTA is terrible... you won't find a ton of agreement.

Edited January 22, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, buddha said:

i guess you've never read a newspaper if you believe journalists won't lie to save their credibility, break a story, or just save their own asses.  🤣

no doubt, I'm just positing that Roberts' denial is no more credible than Totenberg's avowal. I'm sure that whatever tensions exist on the court, which human nature being what it is surely exist, the only thing all of them probably dislike more than they may dislike each other would be having their dirty laundry aired in public. The court hides behind a veil they work very hard not to have punctured.

Edited January 22, 2022 by gehringer_2