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2021 Postseason thread


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1 hour ago, Archie said:

If they spent enough money I'm sure they could sign Correa.  We've heard the Yankees are very interested too so its going to cost them a lot.  If you were a player and wanted to contend for WS every year where would you rather play?

Part of the struggle I see with Correa as well is that the Astros themselves may want to up their ante with him too. 

They will have to pay a ransom to get him, and honestly as much as I'd love to see him in a Tiger uniform, not at too steep a price.

In terms of where he'd rather play, this is probably an overrated factor, but one selling point of coming to a Detroit would be that he would be THE guy here, not just another cog in murderers row with the Yankees. 

I dont know if that matters for a lot of players tho. Probably not.

Edited by mtutiger
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16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Part of the struggle I see with Correa as well is that the Astros themselves may want to up their ante with him too

They will have to pay a ransom to get him, and honestly as much as I'd love to see him in a Tiger uniform, not at too steep a price.

In terms of where he'd rather play, this is probably an overrated factor, but one selling point of coming to a Detroit would be that he would be THE guy here, not just another cog in murderers row with the Yankees. 

I dont know if that matters for a lot of players tho. Probably not.

Is it just me, or does this seem to be lost in speculation about where he goes to?

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29 minutes ago, casimir said:

Is it just me, or does this seem to be lost in speculation about where he goes to?

I thought I read the Astros have already made him an offer in the 5/125 range and that is so far short of his assumed value the conclusion is that there is not much chance of them retaining him. Which should be a cautionary note for other teams. When one of the most successful franchises in recent years is making a value judgment that is something like 100% different than the talking heads, you might stop to ask why.

Here is one report that google tossed up where Correa is quoted saying the Astros were 'not even close"

https://roxpile.com/2021/10/14/colorado-rockies-houston-astros-carlos-correa-trevor-story/#:~:text=Correa told the media (including,t get close at all.”

Edited by gehringer_2
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4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I thought I read the Astros have already made him an offer in the 5/125 range and that is so far short of his assumed value the conclusion is that there is not much chance of them retaining him. Which should be a cautionary note for other teams. When one of the most successful franchises in recent years is making a value judgment that is something like 100% different than the talking heads, you might stop to ask why.

Here is one report that google tossed up where Correa is quoted saying the Astros were 'not even close"

https://roxpile.com/2021/10/14/colorado-rockies-houston-astros-carlos-correa-trevor-story/#:~:text=Correa told the media (including,t get close at all.”

We can spitball here and easily assume north of $35M per and longer than 7 with a player opt out after a few seasons, right?

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2 minutes ago, casimir said:

We can spitball here and easily assume north of $35M per and longer than 7 with a player opt out after a few seasons, right?

would not disagree. And I won't complain one bit if the Tigers are the one's to pay it, though I'm not in the camp that thinks you have to have superstar players to be the best team so I won't be mad if they don't pay that either.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

You want video? OK.

 

Same video they showed during the game.

There is no controversy because literally no one is claiming that he swung after all.

The umpire botched it. I'm not blaming him for the loss, because the Giants made their share of fatal mistakes (Doval in the ninth?). But the umpire's botched call sealed the loss and robbed the Giants of overcoming their own mistakes.

 

 

What rule in the rulebook says that is not a swing?

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53 minutes ago, chasfh said:

FWIW, in a chat, Kevin Goldstein said he thought that the AJ connection in Detroit might help bring Correa here. Flip side, Goldstein was neck deep in the scandal down there, so I'm not sure how much salt to put on that assessment.

He recently said on his podcast those are two guys from his astros days he is still good friends with and talks to regularly. 

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54 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I thought I read the Astros have already made him an offer in the 5/125 range and that is so far short of his assumed value the conclusion is that there is not much chance of them retaining him. Which should be a cautionary note for other teams. When one of the most successful franchises in recent years is making a value judgment that is something like 100% different than the talking heads, you might stop to ask why.

Here is one report that google tossed up where Correa is quoted saying the Astros were 'not even close"

https://roxpile.com/2021/10/14/colorado-rockies-houston-astros-carlos-correa-trevor-story/#:~:text=Correa told the media (including,t get close at all.”

The Astros may have already made an offer, but do we have reason to believe that they may not up the ante?

Homers like the one last night probably up the pressure to some extent on the Astros to at least put forth an effort to try to keep him in the fold

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49 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

would not disagree. And I won't complain one bit if the Tigers are the one's to pay it, though I'm not in the camp that thinks you have to have superstar players to be the best team so I won't be mad if they don't pay that either.

I will.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The Astros may have already made an offer, but do we have reason to believe that they may not up the ante?

Homers like the one last night probably up the pressure to some extent on the Astros to at least put forth an effort to try to keep him in the fold

IDK, did Ilitch feel pressure to up the offer to Max? These things become as much about Millionaire vs Billionaire ego trips as how to systematically deploy dollars for the most wins.

Edited by gehringer_2
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If it's 10 years/ $ 30 Mill... with the last couple years team options or counting stat options (not certain what that's actually called... must play over 120 games to auto-opt-in 9th year, and 10th year...?):

That's $30 mill per year and it probably starts out at $22-25 Mill/ year until $40-ish Mill per year in year 9 and 10... which would be team-protected options anyway (hopefully in that kind of contract)... Even if it's 10 years $350 Mill it can be structured in a way to give the team some protections... maybe start the "counting stats" options in year 7 when the contract gets up to $35 Mill... then in affect it's really a 6 year/ $180mill contract averaging $30M per year and team protections afterwards.

IOW: There are ways to make this work. There are ways to protect the team. Usually these contracts start out at a lower AAV (IE: $22-25M/ year) which means we are NOT paying $40M/ year as alluded to above.

Until we hear otherwise... I'm still "Correa or Bust".

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If the Tigers sign Carlos Correa for 10 years 350 million I will be very surprised. I won't be unhappy but I think its better to go a different direction as I have been advocating. These playoff games are another example of the importance of pitching ,defense  and quality roster depth on the 26 and I would spend my money on that. 

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5 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

... These playoff games are another example of the importance of pitching, defense, and quality roster depth on the 26 and I would spend my money on that. 

There are multiple avenues to this aside from just spending money. That includes draft & development, trades, taking less expensive flyers, etc...

I don't think we disagree on the defense, pitching and quality depth position (I'm not disagreeing with anyone holding that position)...

I think I am simply seeing things differently, or valuing what we have in AAA and AA differently, or using different methods or priorities trying to get to the same spot... Something. But on overall philosophy, no disagreement.

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3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

What rule in the rulebook says that is not a swing?

Please. You know as well as anyone that there is a well-accepted standard of what point a check swing becomes a strike, what that standard is, and that this falls well short of it. Enough with the gaslighting.

Come on.

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1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

If the Tigers sign Carlos Correa for 10 years 350 million I will be very surprised. I won't be unhappy but I think its better to go a different direction as I have been advocating. These playoff games are another example of the importance of pitching ,defense  and quality roster depth on the 26 and I would spend my money on that. 

Correa would be 37 at the end of a 10yr deal. Assume you are willing to write off/buy out one year, call it 36. How many SS are still useful at 36 and does Correa fit the profile of those that are?

Jeter was pretty close to 'generational' and his string of OPS+ >100 years ended at 35, with a decent comeback yr at 38. About the same for Ripken. Do folks think Correa lives in that company?

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7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Correa would be 37 at the end of a 10yr deal. Assume you are willing to write off/buy out one year, call it 36. How many SS are still useful at 36 and does Correa fit the profile of those that are?

Jeter was pretty close to 'generational' and his string of OPS+ >100 years ended at 35, with a decent comeback yr at 38. About the same for Ripken. Do folks think Correa lives in that company?

Odds are he won't but when you sign a long term deal like that isn't it accepted that the last couple years are going to be a a sunk cost?  A few things that Correa has going for him, for starters is that his defense is far superior than Jeter's or Ripken's ever were, he's so good defensively that even when he eventually loses a step he'll still probably be passable at short, he also has a bat that can play anywhere, for his career he's about 30% above league average which is outstanding so even if he does have to move down the spectrum he can still provide value. Finally he is a former number 1 overall pick, that means something to me cause it shows that he has always had the pedigree which means that perhaps he just may be one of those outliers like Ripken or Jeter that stay valuable late in their careers. 

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Correa would be 37 at the end of a 10yr deal. Assume you are willing to write off/buy out one year, call it 36. How many SS are still useful at 36 and does Correa fit the profile of those that are?

Jeter was pretty close to 'generational' and his string of OPS+ >100 years ended at 35, with a decent comeback yr at 38. About the same for Ripken. Do folks think Correa lives in that company?

This is why I think he could have an opt out if he signs for 10 or fewer years.  I think he will set himself up to be a free agent at 30 or 31 and try to get a deal through his age 39/40 season.

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