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2021 Postseason thread


oblong

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Since Correa was one of the main public apologists of the incident afterwards so probably a clubhouse ringleader, and therefore one of the players AJ presumably couldn’t control, I have to wonder how that affects Correa’s chances of coming to play here.

 

Of course we will probably never know which way Hinch is lobbying Avila on Correa. We can probably be sure he has no objections to him if we land him, but if we don't we'll probably never know if the reason was because Hinch asked them not to try.

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

I don't think managers by themselves can suspend players.

It *seems* from a distance that he was against the cheating, tried to confront it, but ran up against players that didn't respect him enough, and higher powers who wouldn't back him up....kind of like the Eight Men Out scenario but Commie is with the players.

It's a huge chink in his armor and a stain on his record....but if he can win it "clean" with the Tigers he will deserve all of the propers that come his way.

If my theory is correct, I would guess that he would lobby against Correa.  That's OK with me....while Correa is an amazing player, his health history, involvement in this scandal, and what are sure to be astounding salary demands makes me feel like we can do better overall with Semien or Story. 

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13 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

It *seems* from a distance that he was against the cheating, tried to confront it, but ran up against players that didn't respect him enough, and higher powers who wouldn't back him up....kind of like the Eight Men Out scenario but Commie is with the players.

It's a huge chink in his armor and a stain on his record....but if he can win it "clean" with the Tigers he will deserve all of the propers that come his way.

If my theory is correct, I would guess that he would lobby against Correa.  That's OK with me....while Correa is an amazing player, his health history, involvement in this scandal, and what are sure to be astounding salary demands makes me feel like we can do better overall with Semien or Story. 

unless you already have a really deep team like the Dodgers, I think that in baseball the same dollars spent on two good players will get you more winning differential than spending it on the best player that comes on the market. Or IOW, the economic are that being at the very top as a player is worth more to you in $ than it is to your team in wins.

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59 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

You need to keep the Angels in the mix there too........They seem to think spending a lot of money is the way. 

The Angels have the 7th highest payroll in MLB. I was surprised to see they were higher than Padres who are 8th.  Both teams have spent a lot with little results.

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1 hour ago, Archie said:

The Angels have the 7th highest payroll in MLB. I was surprised to see they were higher than Padres who are 8th.  Both teams have spent a lot with little results.

and Trout following in Cabrera's footsteps not only in being a generational talent but also in getting paid big dollars to be injured.....

Which is a another reason that spreading your funds across many good players can work out better than putting huge dollars into one or two superstars.

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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

and Trout following in Cabrera's footsteps not only in being a generational talent but also in getting paid big dollars to be injured.....

Which is a another reason that spreading your funds across many good players can work out better than putting huge dollars into one or two superstars.

Opportunity cost and resource allocation.

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31 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and Trout following in Cabrera's footsteps not only in being a generational talent but also in getting paid big dollars to be injured.....

Which is a another reason that spreading your funds across many good players can work out better than putting huge dollars into one or two superstars.

I agree.  I would rather see them spend big money on a 1 or 2 year deal instead of a career deal for a player.  Problem is all top players want long term deals.  Al should keep a big picture of Justin Zimmerman in his briefcase when he goes to the negotiating table to remind him what not to do.

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43 minutes ago, casimir said:

I have a hard time with the Dodgers-Giants game not starting until 9pm ME time.  But on the other hand, its 6pm for the local fanbases and they deserve a starting time that benefits themselves.

another reason why the eastern time zone is the worst time zone to be in.

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2 hours ago, Archie said:

I agree.  I would rather see them spend big money on a 1 or 2 year deal instead of a career deal for a player.  Problem is all top players want long term deals.  Al should keep a big picture of Justin Zimmerman in his briefcase when he goes to the negotiating table to remind him what not to do.

To your point, almost no one worth a darn is taking big money for short deals, so in practical terms, the option you'd rather see is not an option at all. Players are people, and people want as security that's as long-term as they can manage.

Yeah, I know, Trevor Bauer. Obviously a freak. And in more ways than one. 😏

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

and Trout following in Cabrera's footsteps not only in being a generational talent but also in getting paid big dollars to be injured.....

Which is a another reason that spreading your funds across many good players can work out better than putting huge dollars into one or two superstars.

Seems like they are just loaded with injuries.   Trout and Rendon, they both make a fortune and they always seem to be hurt now.   They will have to pay to keep Ohtani too, but I think they will be the ones who sign Correa.  

I think we'll end up signing someone for a year Maybe Javy Baez or Simmons.   I think Seager goes back to the Dodgers. 

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22 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

unless you already have a really deep team like the Dodgers, I think that in baseball the same dollars spent on two good players will get you more winning differential than spending it on the best player that comes on the market. Or IOW, the economic are that being at the very top as a player is worth more to you in $ than it is to your team in wins.

I believe in that as well....at least that's how I've always run my fantasy teams 😃

In all seriousness, if you are going to put your eggs in one basket, Correa doesn't seem like the right guy.  If you are adding him to the Yankees or Dodgers, as you said, different story.

They also have more holes than AA seems to acknowledge, so spreading the $$ around makes more sense.

AA seemed to indicate that he is looking for the following enhancements in 2022:

- a quality SP, I'm guessing $15M (let's say 2 WAR improvement vs. Urena)

- a very good SS for $25M (let's say 4 WAR improvement vs. Castros)

Add $40M to the team payroll and they would be at $118M....still $12M below the league average

Here's what I reasonably think could happen vs. 2021 on the field, in addition to the two FAs (SP and SS) mentioned above:

- Mize improves - he was already a 3 win pitcher this year, perhaps he adds 1 WAR?

- Manning improves - I could see a 2 more WAR out of him.

- Tork and Greene could add 3 wins combined vs. the 2021 guys they would replace (Castros, by way of moving Schoop off 1B, and Reyes/etc. in the OF) if they play more than half a season).

- OTOH, they are going to lose 30+ good starts from Boyd and Turnbull that they are going to backfill with ??? like Hutch and whoever else they grab....that could be a 3 WAR loss right there.

- and Grossman is likely to regress 1 WAR or so.

Put all of the above together and I think they would be an 85 win team.  Sprinkle in a key injury or two and they are scuffling to try and hit 81 wins.  

Even if they expand the playoff format in 2022, the 7th winningest team in the AL in 2021 had 90 wins.  And even if SEA was lucky to get to 90 wins, they probably stole a couple of those from OAK, who wound up at 86....so the playoffs in any case looks like a 90+ win threshold....and I think we are 5-10 wins below that with what AA is aiming/hoping for.

My hope would be that in addition to a SP and SS, they also acquire another decent SP ($5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. Urena/Hutch), or al least a decent OF ($5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. Reyes), or if failing all of that, a decent RP (again, $5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. various RPs).....they could add two out of three, good enough for about 90 wins if things go well or 85 wins with an injury or two.....and they would still be a couple million $$ either way of league-average-payroll in that scenario.

We've had 4 years of tanking and an unexpected rise in 2021 with the only "tank-pick" contribution coming from Mize (3 WAR).  We can start adding the high 1st round draft picks in 2022 to the MLB team, move towards a league-average payroll, and contend in 2022.

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2 hours ago, buddha said:

another reason why the eastern time zone is the worst time zone to be in.

I loved moving to Central Time when I went to Milwaukee in 1992, not just for the sports (ABC MNF at 8pm!), but also for the 7pm-10pm prime time schedule, which was an actual factor in early-cable pre-DVR days. News at 10pm, Carson at 1030pm, Letterman at 1130pm, SNL also at 1030pm—just better all around. When I moved to Columbus, then Baltimore, I missed Central time hugely. When the Chicago job came through, returning to Central Time was not a small reason I couldn't wait to get there.

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54 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Even if they expand the playoff format in 2022, the 7th winningest team in the AL in 2021 had 90 wins. 

I'm hoping that they hit on a minor league arm for some additional BP help this year - Faedo, Wentz, Madden...there are enough possibilities it wouldn't be too much of a stretch. Especially since I'm skeptical that the control Cisnerno found for the 1st time in his career is going to sustain.

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